Confronting Impossible Futures: Planning for the Uncertain Evolution of AI

As I delved into Ethan Mollick’s insightful article, I was struck by a recurring theme: the glaring omission in strategic planning concerning AI’s ongoing and future advancements. Despite planning horizons that often stretch decades ahead, many organizations fail to seriously account for the continuous improvement of AI in their strategies. This is perplexing, given the extensive discussion around AI’s potential, particularly the possibility of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Here are a few key points from Ethan’s article that stood out to me:

• Diverse Opinions on AGI: There’s a wide range of beliefs about the feasibility and timeline of AGI. Some insiders predict it within a few years, while others foresee much longer timelines or question the current path to AGI altogether.
• Current Impact of AI: AI is already transforming various sectors, including jobs, education, and cybersecurity. Ignoring these changes in strategic planning is shortsighted.
• Need for Scenario Planning: Given the uncertainty surrounding AI’s evolution, organizations should employ scenario planning to navigate multiple potential futures, from linear growth to AGI.

Ethan emphasizes that AI’s current and near-term capabilities warrant immediate attention and integration into strategic planning. Whether or not AGI is achieved soon, AI will continue to evolve and disrupt industries in significant ways.

To explore these ideas further and gain a deeper understanding of the potential futures of AI, I highly recommend reading Ethan Mollick’s full article on One Useful Thing.